Covid19

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Fewer patients in critical care this winter than pre-pandemic

Each day we get told across many of the prominent news channels of the number of patients with Covid-19 in hospital. I have seen many journalists broadcasting from critical care units highlighting the NHS struggles, but how has the total number of patients this winter different from previous winters? Looking at the data, this winter …

Fewer patients in critical care this winter than pre-pandemic Read More »

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SAGE wrong again – reality sees deaths 90% lower than their recent forecast

Back in September, SAGE warned of around 3,000 hospitalisations per day if the Government did not introduce Plan B in England. The Government ignored this and admissions never rose above 900 per day. As the Omicron wave hit the UK, the Government introduced Plan B measures on December 15th. SAGE modellers then warned of up …

SAGE wrong again – reality sees deaths 90% lower than their recent forecast Read More »

Drakeford wrong – no clear evidence restrictions led to better outcomes than England

When announcing new restrictions in Wales from Boxing Day, Mark Drakeford misled the public when claiming the new Omicron variant was “probably that it’s just as severe as any other form would be”. There was clear evidence from other countries this was not the case, but this did not stop the First Minister from making …

Drakeford wrong – no clear evidence restrictions led to better outcomes than England Read More »

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Another nonsense Ferguson prediction – 5000 Omicron deaths a day

With the Omicron Covid-19 variant spreading across the world, Professor Neil Ferguson has suggested we could see 5,000 Omicron deaths a day unless the UK introduces tighter restrictions. So how likely is his latest prediction? Cases vs deaths There is a relationship between Covid-19 cases and deaths and if you track them through the pandemic, …

Another nonsense Ferguson prediction – 5000 Omicron deaths a day Read More »