The UK is on the cusp of a further significant population shift, with projections indicating a 6 million increase by 2040. This surge is largely attributed to net migration, with a staggering 6.4 million individuals expected to arrive between 2024 and 2040. While a natural decline (437,000 fewer births than deaths) is anticipated, migration will be the dominant factor driving this demographic change.
To put this growth into perspective, a 6 million increase is almost double the current population of Wales and nearly six times the size of Birmingham, the UK’s second-largest city. This rapid expansion will undoubtedly profoundly impact various aspects of British society.
The Strain on Public Services
One of the most pressing concerns associated with this population boom is the strain it will place on public services. Increased demand for housing, healthcare, and transportation infrastructure will require substantial investment and careful planning.
Housing costs are a key factor in falling births
The housing market is already struggling to keep pace with demand. A significant influx of new residents will exacerbate this issue, potentially leading to further housing shortages and rising rents and house prices. In 1997, the average house price was 3.4 times the average salary across England and Wales, and by 2023, this had risen to eight times. Additional demand will only worsen the issue, making it increasingly difficult for younger generations to get on the property ladder and start a family.
Costs have been a key factor in the declining fertility rate in recent decades. A fertility rate of 2.1 is needed for natural replacement (births replacing the number of deaths), a figure not seen in the UK since the 1970s. Over the forecast period, it is assumed that the recent fertility rate of around 1.4 will continue.
A Ticking Time Bomb for the Already Crumbling NHS
The NHS is already facing significant challenges with record waiting lists and emergency services struggling to deliver an adequate service for the UK nation. While the NHS does recruit migrants from abroad, which helps to provide care for those who need it, a larger population will increase the demand for healthcare services, potentially leading to longer waiting lists and increased pressure on staff.
Demand for NHS services also increases as people age. We will see large numbers of people who have moved to the UK in recent decades reach an age where they require significant NHS support. In 2024, the number of people aged 75 and over in the population was around 6.5 million; by 2040, this is expected to rise closer to 9 million, an increase of 37%.
These statistics demonstrate the short-sightedness of politicians like Mark Drakeford, who recently claimed that Wales has too many hospitals. With such a significant rise in the elderly population, the UK and devolved governments need to act now to build more hospitals to cope with the population boom of recent decades, which is set to continue.
Quality of Life Declines Without Investment
The UK government faces the crucial task of managing this population growth effectively. This will require significant investment in housing, transportation, and healthcare infrastructure to accommodate the growing population. Local authorities need to develop sustainable urban and regional plans to ensure adequate provision of services and amenities.
Managing migration effectively is crucial to ensure that the benefits of migration are maximised while mitigating potential negative impacts.
The UK is poised for a period of significant population growth, driven primarily by net migration. These numbers may underplay the size of what will actually happen as they assume migration levels that are lower than in recent years. While this growth presents opportunities, it also brings significant challenges for policymakers and society as a whole. We cannot continue to have such high levels of immigration without the necessary infrastructure investment to cope with it. Without that investment, the quality of life diminishes for everyone living here, and this is not something people have signed up for.
Follow me on X, Instagram, and Facebook for my regular updates.